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Joe’s Picks- September 22, 2022

Belmont at the Big A

Race 1- Galileo’s Jewel #3 & Caly Bali #5

An interesting maiden special weight turf sprint for fillies, so I am going to place win wagers on two horses.  The first is #3 GALILEO’S JEWEL who just has superior breeding with a sire of Kingman and then the great Galileo on the dam side.  She will probably want longer distances in the future, but the blood is there, and Javier Castellano is one of the best turf riders in the country.  My second pick is #5 CALY BALI who is firing off bullet workouts left and right for first-time starter star trainer Brad Cox.  He clicks at 26% with two-year-old horses overall and 21% in turf sprints.  Dylan Davis rides who has hit at an astonishing 75% with Cox horses over the last 20 months.

Bet- $50 to WIN #3 GALILEO’S JEWEL

$50 to WIN #5 CALY BALI

Race 5- La Conquistadora #2 & Caribbean Breeze #9

This is a wide-open maiden special weight dirt sprint, so I am going to make two plays.  I really like #2 LA CONQUISTADORA who debuts for Kelly Breen, whose runners have run very well of late, especially first-time starters.  His sire, Nyquist, has very good first-out numbers and Kendrick Carmouche is exceptional at getting horses out fast from the gate.  He has the advantageous pole position due to the presence of the entry and I think Carmouche is going to bust out of there right to the lead.  I also can’t throw out #9 CARIBBEAN BREEZE who debuts for the dangerous Brad Cox.  He has a nice string of workouts dating back to mid-July and his sire, Mendelssohn is having a very good year at stud.  Jose Ortiz is a patient rider so that will work well with this outside post.

BET- $25 to WIN #2 LA CONQUISTADORA

$25 to WIN #9 CARIBBEAN BREEZE

Race 9- Divine Wine #10

This 40K maiden claimer on the turf is wide open with class drop-downs, inconsistent form, trainer switches, and equipment changes which should make for a mad scramble in the nightcap.  I am taking a shot with #10 DIVINE WINE who has only raced once back in June of 2021 where she ran so-so and didn’t make much impact.  She was previously trained by Chad Brown, but now Jorge Abreu has the task of getting this 275K March 2021 OBS sale graduate out of Into Mischief back on track.  She gets first-time Lasix and gets the services of Flavien Prat in the irons, who has hit at 33% for Abreu and is coming off a great Saratoga meet.  I believe this one has a lot more to show in an otherwise ordinary race.  She has been off for 15 months. so obviously, there was an issue and now it’s fixed and this horse has a ton of upside.  Workouts are steady and Abreu has an 18% strike number in turf sprints which is solid.

BET- $25 to WIN and PLACE #10 DIVINE WINE

Churchill Downs

Race 2- Three $20 win bets

I am betting three longshots in this 12-horse maiden claimer that is completely wide open and if one wins you will be making money.  The first is #3 GHOSTSRYDER who was completely wiped out at the start of his debut and never ran in that race.  So, that is a throw-out, and being out of Arrogate he should show much more for trainer William Morey who hits at 24% with maiden second-time starters and 25% overall with two-year-olds.  The second horse I like is #6 CONNECT ME  who broke out in his debut and stretches out today.  He has been gelded since that start and gets the blinkers on to be more focused for Larry Jones who is a solid trainer.  My third choice is #12 AIRTIME, who based on recent form, probably is the speed of the speed in this race.  He should shoot out of the gate right to the front, and although he spit the bit and went backward in his debut, it’s possible he will have more stamina this time out and could get loose on the lead.  The trainer, John Ortiz, also is 30% with the move from maiden special weights to maiden claimers so he knows how to spot his horses for their best chance at success.

Bet- $20 to WIN on each- #3 GHOSTSRYDER, #6 CONNECT ME & #12 AIRTIME

Race 4- $10 Daily Double- 4,7,8/1,9,11 – $90.00

Races 4 and 5 are maiden special weight races and the Daily Double play features all horses who are making their first lifetime start and are working out very well.  I feel there is a lot of value in this bet and it should pay well if it hits.